How
Should You Balance Your Win Rate Against The Standard Deviation?
There's no right or wrong here. Some people
are comfortable with a high level of risk and have the bankroll
to accommodate the extreme fluctuations inherent in wild
games. Others are not. In fact, you'll frequently hear players
bemoaning the fact that they're at a table with all live
ones. "I wish there were two or three good, tight players
at the table," they'll say, "because they bring
stability to the games. With them there, my good hands tend
to hold up more often."
From a statistical
perspective, this comment is nothing more than a cry for
a smaller standard deviation, and a willingness to accept
the slightly smaller win rate that accompanies it. Even
without a knowledge of statistics, these players have learned
that when you operate on the edge, or when you're in a jam-up
games with a lot of maniacs, the price you pay for an increased
win rate is more extreme fluctuations.
What does this mean to you as a player? Do you live on the
edge, or seek whatever safety net might be available? As
long as you can afford to play the games you're in, this
becomes a matter of personal choice. Only you can decide
how much uncertainty you're comfortable with. If you elect
to push every advantage, no matter how small, expect significantly
higher fluctuations than you'd experience if you were willing
to trade off that win rate for a bit more stability. If
you elect to maximize your win rate, then you'll need a
larger bankroll to play the games.
