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BLUFFING
ON THE END
There are two basic conditions that determine
how you act when you are heads-up on the end - whether
or not you have made a legitimate hand and whether
you are in first position or last position. Without
a legitimate hand against an opponent with a legitimate
hand, you cannot win except on a bluff- a bet or
a raise that causes your opponent to fold. You cannot
hope to win by checking or by calling. Determining
whether or not to try a bluff on the end is based
on the same logic as any other bet. You have to decide
whether the attempt has positive expectation. If
the pot is $100 and you bet $20 with nothing, you
have to believe your opponent will fold more than
once in six times in order to expect a profit. Thus,
if your opponent folds once in five times, you will
lose $20 four times, but you will win $100 once on
average for a net profit of $20 or an average profit
of $4 per hand. However, if your opponent folds once
in seven times, you will lose $20 six times and win
$100 once for a net loss of $20 or an average loss
of $2.86 per hand. Whether a bluff works often enough
to be profitable depends, like most plays on the
end, upon an accurate assessment of what your opponent
is likely to do.
While it's tough to get away with a bluff on the end, it's much
tougher to get away with a bluff raise. Your opponent needs to
fold more often for a bluff raise to show a profit because you
are putting in a double bet. Suppose, as in the last case, there
is $100 in the pot, and your opponent bets $20. You now call
his $20 and raise another $20 on a bluff. With your opponent's
$20 bet, the pot has increased to $120, but you are making a
$40 investment in the hope your opponent will fold. Since you
are now getting only 3-to-1 for your money, your opponent must
no longer fold more than once in six times but more than once
in four times for you to show a profit. Yet when calling your
bluff raise, your opponent is getting 8-to-1 for his money. The
$100 already in the pot, plus your opponent's original $20 bet,
plus your $40 call and raise adds up to a total of $160 in exchange
for the opponent's $20. So as we noted in the page on raising,
it takes a very tough opponent, capable of super-tough folds,
to throw away a legitimate hand in this situation. Average players
will almost always call. The only time a bluff raise might work
against them is when you suspect correctly that they have nothing
themselves. Most of the time, though, when your opponent bets
and you have nothing, your best play is to fold.
Let us now consider betting strategy heads-up on the end when
you have a legitimate hand. You are going to be either first
or last to act, and as we have noted, strategy changes according
to your position. We'll begin by looking at strategy in last
position, which is not quite so tricky as in first position.
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