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BLUFFING ON THE END

There are two basic conditions that determine how you act when you are heads-up on the end - whether or not you have made a legitimate hand and whether you are in first position or last position. Without a legitimate hand against an opponent with a legitimate hand, you cannot win except on a bluff- a bet or a raise that causes your opponent to fold. You cannot hope to win by checking or by calling. Determining whether or not to try a bluff on the end is based on the same logic as any other bet. You have to decide whether the attempt has positive expectation. If the pot is \$100 and you bet \$20 with nothing, you have to believe your opponent will fold more than once in six times in order to expect a profit. Thus, if your opponent folds once in five times, you will lose \$20 four times, but you will win \$100 once on average for a net profit of \$20 or an average profit of \$4 per hand. However, if your opponent folds once in seven times, you will lose \$20 six times and win \$100 once for a net loss of \$20 or an average loss of \$2.86 per hand. Whether a bluff works often enough to be profitable depends, like most plays on the end, upon an accurate assessment of what your opponent is likely to do.