Playing
Fair-to-Good Hands in First Position as an Underdog
In cases where
you think you're the underdog if called, the decision
to bet or check becomes even more ticklish. Let's
say there's $60 in the pot in a $10-$20 games,
and again you have hand 80. But this time you know
your opponent will call only with hands 65 and
up. Thus, you are a 20-to-15 underdog if your opponent
calls. You also know that if you check, your opponent
will bet with hands 70 and up. How should you play?
As an
underdog, you might think you should check. But what
will you do if your opponent bets after you check?
Since there's $60 in the pot plus your opponent's
$20, you're getting $80-to $20 or 4-to-1 odds from
the pot, and we said your opponent will bet with
hands 70-100. You have hand 80, and so you'll lose
to 20 hands and beat 10 hands. Since you are getting
4-to-1 from the pot and are only a 2-to-1 underdog,
clearly you must call when your opponent bets.
Look
again at what happens when you bet. Your opponent
will call with hands 65-100. By betting you've added
five wins - when your opponent has hands 65-69 -
to your possibilities.
Instead
of going in as a 20-to-10 underdog, which you would
be doing if you checked, you're going in as a 20-to-15
underdog since you'll still lose to 20 hands, but
now you will beat 15 hands instead of 10. So the
correct play is to bet because betting here makes
you less of an underdog than checking. Your hand
is worth a call, and your opponent will call with
more hands than he'll bet. (This play is something
like splitting 8s in blackjack against the dealer's
10. You are still an underdog, but you are less of
an underdog than if you had simply hit.)
Suppose
with $60 in the pot you again have hand 80, and your
opponent will again call with hands 65 and up. But
this opponent will bet only with hands 82 and up.
How should you play?
In the
previous case you really didn't like your situation.
You bet as a 20-to-15 underdog only because you would
have had to call as a 20-to-10 underdog. But in the
present case, in which you are still a 20-to-15 underdog
if you bet, you don't have to worry about calling.
Any time your opponent bets, you know he has you
beat since he will only bet with hands 82 and up.
You certainly don't want to bet as an underdog when
you don't have to, so the correct play in this instance
is to check and fold if your opponent bets. You blow
a bet 15 times, when your opponent has hands 65-79
and checks behind you, but you save a bet 20 times,
when he has hands 81-100. You save more bets than
you sacrifice. Checking and folding has greater expectation
than betting as a 20-to-15 underdog.
A curious
situation develops, though, when you are an underdog
when called and your opponent will bet if you check
with only a few hands you can beat. It would seem
that the correct play is to check and fold if your
opponent bets. However, it often works out that the
play with the greatest expectation is to bet your
own underdog hands even though, if you checked, you
could not call when your opponent bet. Depending
upon the size of the pot, this situation occurs when
your opponent will call with many hands you can beat
but will bet with only a few hands you can beat.
Let's
say there's $60 in the pot, and you have hand 80.
You know your opponent will call with hands 65 and
up (remember, we are being completely hypothetical
here for the purposes of illustration), but he will
bet only with hands 76 and up. Thus, if you check
with hand 80 and your opponent bets, you will be
a 20-to-4 or a 5-to-1 underdog. Since you're only
getting $80-to-$20 or 4-to-1 odds from the pot, you
cannot call. However, when you yourself bet, you
add 11 wins to your possibilities - when your opponent
has hands 65-75 - thus creating a situation where
you are getting favorable odds from the pot.
Here's
how this situation works out mathematically. Remember
that we know your opponent will call with hands 65
and up but he will bet only with hands 76 and up.
All the hands are equally likely. Thus if you check
and fold when he bets then in 100 times you will
win $60 76 times when he has hands 0-75) for a total
of $4,560. However if you bet you will win $60 65
times and $80 15 times while losing $20 20 times.
This works out to $4,700 which is $140 more than
you would have won by checking and folding if your
opponent bet. Consequently, even though as an underdog
you would not call if your opponent bet on the end,
it may sometimes be right for you to bet, depending
upon the size of the pot and the number of second-best
hands you think your opponent will call with.
Finally,
there are some unusual situations, when the pot is
fairly large and your opponent is somewhat timid,
where it may be correct to check and call even though
your opponent would call you with more hands than
he would bet himself This is the exception we referred
to earlier to the general rule that you should bet
when your opponent will call with more hands than
he would bet.
Suppose
you have hand 80. You're playing in a $10-$20 games,
and there's $200 in the pot. You know your opponent
will call only with hands 75 and up; so you're a
4-to-1 underdog if your bet. But you'd be getting
at least 10-to-1 from the pot, so a bet could be
right. However, you also know your opponent is afraid
to bet for value on many hands that beat you - say,
hands 81-90.
This
opponent will bet hands 91-100 and he may occasionally
bluff - say, with hands 1-4. Even though this opponent
will bet with fewer hands than he would call with,
and even though the pot odds you're getting make
your hand worth a call, it nevertheless becomes correct
to check in this instance. The reason is that ten
times - in the cases where your opponent has hands
81-90 - you save $20 when he checks the best hand
behind you. Furthermore, when your opponent does
bet and you call, you're only a 10-to-4 or 21/2-to-1
underdog instead of the 20-to-5 or 4-to-1 underdog
you would be if you came out betting. You've also
eliminated the possibility of getting raised in a
situation where, given the size of the pot, you would
almost have to call.
It becomes
correct to check and call, though you know your opponent
would call with more hands than he would bet, if
when you are an underdog you think your opponent
will check some better hands behind you and if you
fear a raise.
Remember,
though, that the last two situations we have described
are unusual. The general rules still apply the majority
of the time. If your hand is worth a call, you should
bet when your opponent will call with more hands
than he will bet, and you should check and call when
your opponent will bet with more hands than he will
check. In other words, you should make the play that
gives you the greatest number of wins and the smallest
number of losses.
