Check-Raising in First Position
With very strong hands your options are to try a check-raise or to come out
betting. The key factors in deciding whether to check-raise are:
1. The chances your opponent will bet if you check.
2. The chances your opponent will call your raise.
The second factor is just as important as the first, because if there were
no chance your opponent would call your raise, it would usually be wrong to
check since you'd risk not winning even a single bet when your opponent checks
behind you. However, all but very tough players will generally call your raise
after you have checked and they have put in an initial bet. They might grumble
as they do it, but they'll do it.
In limit games the decision to check-raise or come out betting can be
determined by a precise formula. To simplify, we'll assume you know for sure
you have the best hand. First, determine what percentage of times your opponent
will call if you bet. That's one side of the equation. Next determine what percentage
of times your opponent will bet if you check but then fold when you raise.
Finally, determine what percentage of times your opponent will bet if you check
and then call your raise. Now double this last percentage. If the sum of the
last two percentages is greater than the first, it is correct to try a
check-raise.
This formula may sound overly complicated, but it really is not. Let's say you
think there is a 70 percent chance your opponent will call if you bet. But you
also think there is a 40 percent chance he will bet if you check and call your
raise, thus rewarding you with a double bet; and perhaps there's another 10
percent chance he'll bet if you check but fold when you raise. Because you'll
win two bets 40 percent of the times that you check, you double that figure to
80 and add the remaining 10 percent chance your opponent will bet and fold when
you raise. That adds up to 90, and since 90 is greater than the 70 percent
chance that your opponent will call your bet, it is right to check raise.
Another way of looking at the problem is in terms of expectation. Let's say you
bet 100 times, and you check with the intention of raising 100 times. In the
former case, you'll win 70 bets; in the latter you'll win 80 bets when your
opponent bets and calls your raise and 10 more when he bets and folds, for a
total of 90 bets. You win 20 bets more by check-raising, and so check raising
has greater expectation than betting out.
Most players do not check-raise enough on the end. They'd rather go for the
single bet in the hopes of getting called. However, it is worth taking a little
chance of losing one bet if there is a good chance of gaining two bets. Since
most players will automatically call a raise when you check-raise, you can
simplify the above formula. In general, you should check with the intention of
raising if you believe the chances of your opponent's betting when you check
are at least half as good as the chances of his calling when you bet. Nor
should you get discouraged if you occasionally check and your opponent checks
behind you. Check raising is a long-run gamble like everything else in poker.
If you know you should win two bets in a particular situation more than half as
often as you would win one bet, then you made the right play by checking even
if it didn't happen to work. Sometimes you also gain an added benefit when a
check-raise doesn't work. Since your opponents noticed you checked a good hand
once, they may become a little timid about betting behind you on future hands,
thus saving you some bets on second-best hands with which you were planning to
call if they bet.
Check-raising on the end works best against average-to-good players. You should
try it less often against weak players and tough players. Weak players tend to
call so much on the end when you bet that you have to be pretty certain they
will bet for a check-raise to be profitable. If, for example, you are sure your
opponent will call if you come out betting, you have to be over 50 percent sure
he will bet if you check before you consider check raising. Even 50 percent
isn't good enough unless you are also sure your opponent will call when you
raise (which, of course, a weak player will most likely do).
Against tough players you would check-raise less often because tough players
tend not to bet as many hands on the end as they call you with, and they
frequently throw away their hands when you raise. Thus, the chances of winning
a double bet with a check-raise decrease.
There is one major time to deviate from the general check-raise formula, and
that is when you think you can win three bets by betting, getting raised, and
then re-raising. A classic example of such a situation against an average
player in seven-card stud occurs when you look like a straight on board but
have a hidden full house, and your opponent may have a flush. You bet your
apparent straight, your opponent raises with his flush, and you lift him out of
his seat by re-raising.
More Categories:
Poker Game Cases 