Last
Position Play After Your Opponent Has Bet
Let us now consider your options in last position when your opponent
does not give you a free call but comes out betting. When he
bets, you can either fold, call, or raise.
Deciding whether to fold or call is relatively straightforward.
The question is: Are your chances of winning the pot better than
the odds you are getting from the pot, either because your hand
is better than your opponent's or because your opponent is bluffing?
If you think your chances are better, you call. If not, you fold.
If you are thinking of raising after your opponent bets, you
must ask the same question you would have asked before betting
had your opponent checked: What are the chances of winning that
extra bet when you are called? You should not raise unless you
figure you are at least a 55 percent favorite, since you also
face the possibility of a reraise. In fact, one way of looking
at raising an opponent on the end without the nuts is that you
are laying almost 2-to-1 odds on that last bet, especially if
your opponent is capable of bluffing on a reraise. When you raise
and your opponent raises back, you usually lose two bets, but
if he calls, you only gain one bet. Of course, this consideration
does not apply against a player who will never bluff on a reraise.
If such a player raises you back, you can just throw your hand
away, knowing you are beat.
Before raising on the end, you must also consider the overall
ability of your opponent. Once he puts in an initial bet, an
average player will call your raise almost every time. Therefore,
you certainly should not try a bluff raise. However, you should
raise with any hand you consider a reasonable favorite to win
the last bet because you can be pretty sure of getting paid off.
Tough players, on the other hand, will frequently come out betting,
but they are capable of folding and not paying you off if you
raise. Therefore, a bluff raise has some chance against them.
However, when you are raising for value against tough players,
you should have a better hand than you need against average players,
because when the former are willing to call your raise and thus
pay you off, they are likely to show down a strong hand. On close
decisions you should not raise tough players on the end as often
as you would weak or average players because you don't win that
extra bet often enough to make the play profitable. Tough players
either throw away a hand you would beat or call with a hand you
might not be able to beat.
Ironically, though, a raise may sometimes be correct against
a world-class player when you have a hand that is only fairly
good. The key factor is whether a raise will make your opponent
throw away some hands that are better than yours. Let's say you
have a hand that you figure has a 52 percent chance of winning
if you call, but little chance of winning if you raise and get
called. Nevertheless, it would be correct to raise if you think
your opponent will then throw away some hands that beat you.
If your analysis is correct, a raise might lift you from a 52
percent favorite to a 65-70 percent favorite, and if the pot
is big enough, that added 13-18 percent gives the raise positive
expectation. Remember, though, that this play is worth considering
only against superstars. Against average and good players - and
also against superstars most of the time - the basic formula
for raising on the end remains the same: Raise only if you are
favored to win that extra bet when your opponent calls.
To summarize
play in last position after your opponent has bet,
you have three options - fold, call, or raise. You
should generally fold when the chances of winning
are less than the pot odds you are getting. Thus,
if your hand has only a 15 percent chance of winning
and the pot is $80, you cannot call a $20 bet. However,
your chances of winning do not have to be over 50
percent to justify a call. All that's necessary is
that the pot odds you're getting are better than
your chances of winning in the showdown. Thus, if
you think you have a 30 percent chance and the pot
is $80, you would be right to call a $20 bet because
the pot odds you're getting are greater than the
odds against your showing down the best hand. Even
when you decide you can or cannot call with your
underdog hand, you have not necessarily eliminated
the option of raising. Against a very, very good
player, you might consider raising with some mediocre
hands if a raise has greater expectation than a fold
or a call - that is, if it will make your opponent
throw away enough hands that would be better than
yours. Anytime you are last and your opponent bets,
you always have the three alternatives of folding,
calling, or raising. The one that becomes right is
the one that gives you the highest mathematical expectation.
