Giving or Not Giving a Free Card With a Marginal Hand
When you are certain you have the best hand, deciding whether to bet with
more cards to come is relatively easy. However, you are frequently in a
situation where you suspect you have the best hand, but you know you will be
called only if you are beaten. Still, you must consider betting so that you do
not give your opponent a free shot to outdraw you in the event you do have the
best hand. The factors to consider when deciding to bet are:
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1.
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Your chances of having the best hand.
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2.
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The chances the next card will give your opponent the best
hand when he would have folded had you bet.
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3.
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The size of the pot.
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4.
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The chances you will outdraw a better hand that might call
you.
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The larger the pot and the greater the chances your opponent will outdraw
you on the next card, the more reason you have to bet.
Point number 4 needs some explaining. Suppose you are afraid you do not have as
good a hand as your opponent. Before betting, you should take into account what
your chances are of outdrawing the hand you fear your opponent might have. The
higher those chances, the more reason you have to bet. The lower they are, the
more reason you have to check. To take an obvious example first, if you have
two pair and a four-flush in seven-card stud and you are worried that your
opponent has made a straight, you should most certainly bet rather than give
him a free card in the event he does not yet have the straight. Your combined
chances of making either a full house or a flush to beat a straight are very
good. On the other hand, if you have two pair with no four-flushes and fear
your opponent has made a straight; you would be inclined to check since your
chances of making a full house are slim.
Which hand would you be more inclined to bet? It turns out you are in much
better shape with the A? 7? (Which gives you two 7s) than you are with two 8s
because there are five unseen cards that will improve the A? 7? Three aces and
two 7s - while there are only two cards that will improve the pair of 8s -
namely, the remaining two 8s. (You disregard pairing any card on board since
the pair improves your opponent's hand as much as or perhaps even more than it
does your own.) Since you have more ways of improving to beat someone with,
say, two jacks, you would be more inclined to bet with an A, 7.
The fewer ways you have of improving, the more convinced you have to be that
you already have the best hand in order to bet. Thus, while you might check two
8s when the flop comes J?7?3?, you would most definitely bet two queens even
though the latter hand also has only two ways of improving (the remaining two
queens). With two queens you are pretty sure you already have the best hand,
yet you are not strong enough to risk giving a free card.
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