Giving
or Not Giving a Free Card With a Marginal Hand
When you are certain you have the best hand, deciding whether
to bet with more cards to come is relatively easy. However,
you are frequently in a situation where you suspect you
have the best hand, but you know you will be called only
if you are beaten. Still, you must consider betting so that
you do not give your opponent a free shot to outdraw you
in the event you do have the best hand. The factors to consider
when deciding to bet are:
| 1.
|
Your
chances of having the best hand. |
| 2.
|
The
chances the next card will give your opponent the
best hand when he would have folded had you bet. |
| 3.
|
The
size of the pot. |
| 4.
|
The
chances you will outdraw a better hand that might
call you. |
The larger the pot and the greater the chances your opponent
will outdraw you on the next card, the more reason you have
to bet.
Point number 4 needs some explaining. Suppose you are afraid
you do not have as good a hand as your opponent. Before betting,
you should take into account what your chances are of outdrawing
the hand you fear your opponent might have. The higher those
chances, the more reason you have to bet. The lower they are,
the more reason you have to check. To take an obvious example
first, if you have two pair and a four-flush in seven-card
stud and you are worried that your opponent has made a straight,
you should most certainly bet rather than give him a free
card in the event he does not yet have the straight. Your
combined chances of making either a full house or a flush
to beat a straight are very good. On the other hand, if you
have two pair with no four-flush and fear your opponent has
made a straight, you would be inclined to check since your
chances of making a full house are slim.
Which hand would you be more inclined to bet? It turns out
you are in much better shape with the A?7? (which gives you
two 7s) than you are with two 8s because there are five unseen
cards that will improve the A?7?three aces and two 7s - while
there are only two cards that will improve the pair of 8s
- namely, the remaining two 8s. (You disregard pairing any
card on board since the pair improves your opponent's hand
as much as or perhaps even more than it does your own.) Since
you have more ways of improving to beat someone with, say,
two jacks, you would be more inclined to bet with an A,7.
The fewer ways you have of improving, the more convinced you
have to be that you already have the best hand in order to
bet. Thus, while you might check two 8s when the flop comes
J?7?3?, you would most definitely bet two queens even though
the latter hand also has only two ways of improving (the remaining
two queens). With two queens you are pretty sure you already
have the best hand, yet you are not strong enough to risk
giving a free card.
