Raising Versus Folding or Calling
Raising is often a
better alternative than folding, with calling the worst
of the three. Such situations occur frequently when there
are several players in the pot. Thus, when you raise with
two l0s against someone betting on the come and succeed
in driving better hands out, you show a profit on the hand
in the long run. However, when you don't want to try this
play, calling cannot be profitable because you are too big
an underdog.
Similarly, we have noted it may be correct to raise with
what is possibly the second-best hand if your raise will
drive third-, fourth-, and fifth-best hands out - usually
straight and/or flush draws. However, if you know those
players are not going to get out when you raise, all of
a sudden your hand might not be worth even a call. Not only
is there a good chance you're already beat by the bettor,
but frequently you'll get caught from behind by one of the
drawing hands. When you cannot get the drawing hands out
by raising, you have so many ways of losing that your best
alternative is to fold.
Let's say in five-card draw you have two 3s and two 2s before
the draw. You are in a game where people are going to come
in behind you with medium-sized pairs. If you want to play
the hand, you must raise to drive all medium-sized pairs
out. In this case you're not interested in cutting down
your opponents' odds, because you can never cut them down
sufficiently as far as your hand is concerned. You want
them out of the hand, pure and simple. If they stay, you
have too many ways to lose since any two pair beat you unless
you hit a lucky 11-to-1 shot and make a full house. Therefore,
if for some reason you choose not to raise or if you think
raising will not drive out the people with the medium pairs,
then your only alternative is to throw away your two tiny
pair. They simply have too little chance of winning in a
multi-way pot to make it worth calling. You must either
raise or fold.
As we discussed previously, raising is better than calling
against a possible semi-bluff when your hand is too good
to fold. It is better for a variety of reasons. It gives
you control of the hand. It sometimes allows you to win
the pot right there. It allows you to take a free card on
the next round when you need to. It prevents your opponent
from getting a cheap card that will beat you when he is
on a semi-bluff. It disguises your hand so that you might
very well win when a worthless scare card falls. Raising
against a possible semi-bluff is so much better than calling
(except in the three situations described at the end of
the last page) that unless you can raise, you're usually
better off folding.
Frequently a semi-bluff raise is indicated even though a
call would be clearly unprofitable. Let's say you have a
four-flush with one card to come. You know the odds against
making the flush are 4-to-1, and your opponent bets $20
into a $40 pot. That is, he's offering you 3-to-1 odds on
a 4-to-1 shot. You cannot usually call the bet since a call
has negative expectation unless you are almost sure of winning
a double bet on the end when you hit the flush. In 100 identical
situations you will win only 20 times on average and lose
80 times. That is, you will win $60 20 times for a total
of $1,200, and you will lose $20 80 times for a total of
$1,600. Your net loss will be $400 or $4 per hand. So the
decision is clear. People who make such calls are perennial
losers.
Of course, if you fold, you lose nothing beyond the money
you put into the pot in earlier betting rounds. But suppose
you read your opponent to be weak - to have, say, only one
pair, and you figure there's a 25 percent chance that opponent
will fold instantly if you raise. Now, although a call has
negative expectation, a semi-bluff raise becomes a profitable
play. We'll work it out over 100 average hands, discounting
any bets on the end. Your opponent will fold 25 times, and
you steal $60 for a total of $1,500. He will call you 75
times, but one-fifth of those times you'll make the flush
to beat him. Thus, 15 times you'll win $80 (the $60 in the
pot plus your opponent's call of your $20 raise) for a total
of $1,200. The remaining 60 times you'll lose $40 (your
$20 call and $20 raise) for a total loss of $2,400. After
100 such plays, then, you figure to win $2,700 ($1,500 plus
$1,200) and lose $2,400 for an average net profit of $300
and a mathematical expectation of $3 per play. The difference
between calling incorrectly and raising correctly is a swing
of $7 – from a $4 loss per play to a $3 profit.' What's
more, if the bets you might win on the last round when you
make the flush were included, your expectation would be
even greater.
