Reading Hands on the Basis of Your Opponents' Play and Exposed Cards
There are
two universally applicable techniques for reading hands in all poker games and
one more for open-handed games like seven-card stud, razz, and hold 'em. Most
commonly you analyze the meaning of an opponent's check, bet, or raise, and in
open-handed games you look at his exposed cards and try to judge from them what
his entire hand might be. You then combine the plays he has made throughout the
hand with his exposed cards and come to a determination about his most likely
hand.
Here is a simple problem in reading hands that should make this point clear.
The games is seven-card stud, and your opponents are decent players:
Player A with the pair of aces showing bets; Player B with the pair of kings
showing calls; and Player C with the pair of queens showing calls. There are no
raises. You are last to act. How should you play your three 7s?
If you combine what you see on board with what your opponents have done, there
should be no doubt in your mind that you must fold; your three 7s have no
chance whatsoever. The crucial factor is that the pair of queens overcalled.
Player A may be betting with aces alone. But when Player B calls him, Player B
must have at least kings up. Being a decent player, Player C knows this.
Therefore, C could not call without having kings up beat. What are C's possible
hands? Well, C cannot have aces and queens or kings and queens because there's
a third ace and a third king out, making it impossible for C to have two of
either. So, he must have three queens or better, and while your three 7s might
beat the first two hands, they cannot beat C's three queens or better.
Therefore, you fold.
Here is a good example of this kind of hand reading, which to my chagrin cost
me half a pot. I was playing five-card stud high-low split with a replace on
the end. With an ace and an 8 showing, I called the maximum raises on third street even
though two other players each had a 6 and a 5 showing. There was another player
in the pot with an obvious pair of kings. When it got down to the last card, I
had A,8,6,3 showing. One 6,5 had folded, but despite the strength of my board,
the other stayed with a ragged 6,5,10,Q showing. And of course, the pair of
kings stayed. Now I was betting and raising, hoping the Q, l O low would get
out. But that player read me too well. He didn't even take the opportunity to
replace one of his cards.
What I was trying to do was win the whole pot, the high and the low, from the
two kings, but the Q, l O low was clever enough to figure out my hand. He said
to himself, "Sklansky is representing an 8 low, but could he have an 8
low? No, he couldn't. Why? Because he would never have called all those raises
on third street
with three cards to an 81ow when there were two other players in the pot who
looked as if they had three cards to a 6 low. Therefore, he must have another
ace in the hole." He was, of course, absolutely right. I won the high with
my two aces, beating the two kings, but the Q,10 low was rewarded for his
accurate reading with the low half of the pot (which I would have won against
the two kings with my two aces counting also as a low pair). The player with
the Q,10 low considered the way I played the hand not just at the end, but from
the beginning, and he combined my play with the cards showing to arrive at the
correct conclusion about what I was holding. He also analyzed the order in
which I received my up cards. He knew I started with A,8 and then caught the 6
and the 3. If he had not known that - if, for example, he had not been sure
whether I started with A,8 or A,6 - it would have been impossible for him to
conclude with such certainty that I had a pair of aces.
It is in this way that you use logic to read hands. You interpret your
opponents' plays on each round, and in open-handed games you note the cards
they catch on each round, paying close attention to the order in which they
catch them. You then put these two pieces of evidence together - the plays and
the up cards - to draw a conclusion about an opponent's most likely hand.
In that high-low split hand, the Q, l O low was able to put me on a specific
hand quite early. However, it is generally a mistake to put someone on a
specific hand early and then stick to your initial conclusion no matter how
things develop. A player who raises on third street in seven-card stud with a
king showing may have two kings, but he may also have a small pair in the hole
with the king kicker or a three-flush or a J,Q,K or a number of other hands as
well. Drawing a narrow, irreversible conclusion early can lead to costly
mistakes later, either because you fold with the best hand or because you stay
in as a big underdog.
What you
do in a game like seven-card stud or hold 'em or razz is to put an opponent on
a variety of hands at the start of play, and as the hand continues, you
eliminate some of those hands based on his later play and on the cards he
catches. Through this process of elimination, you should have a good idea of
what that opponent has (or is drawing to.) when the last card is dealt.
Suppose, for instance, in seven-card stud a player starts with a queen of
spades, then catches the deuce of spades, then the 7 of spades, then the 5 of
hearts, and he's betting all the way. You have a pair of l Os which does not
improve. Your opponent bets on the end, and clearly you can beat only a bluff.
The question is - might your opponent be bluffing? With something like a
four-flush and a small pair, he would probably have played the hand exactly the
same way - semi-bluffing right to the end, assuming you didn't catch any
dangerous-looking cards. Therefore, while your opponent may, in fact, have a
pair of queens or queens up, there's also a chance he has a busted hand. Very
possibly you should call his final bet, given the pot odds you're getting - but
realizing at the same time that he may indeed have been semi-bluffing yet still
caught his hand on the last card.
Suppose, on the other hand, your seven-stud opponent started with that same
queen of spades and you with that same pair of lOs. Once again your opponent is
betting all the way. But this time he catches the 7 of diamonds, then the 4 of
clubs, then the jack of hearts. Now when he bets on the end, you should almost
certainly fold your two unimproved l Os because when he caught the 7• and 44
but continued betting, you had to eliminate the flush draw as one of his
possible hands. Therefore, he is almost certainly betting on the end for value
with at least a pair of queens - more likely two pair. Ironically, it can
sometimes occur that because your opponent's hand looks less dangerous on board
it is more of a threat to have you beat when your opponent bets on the end,
because nothing showing suggests he might have been semi-bluffing as the hand
progressed.
At the end of a hand it becomes especially crucial to have a good idea of what
your opponent has. The more accurately you can read hands on the end, the
better you can decide whether you have, for example, a 20 percent chance of
having your opponent beat or a 60 percent chance or whatever. You use your
ability to read hands to come up with these percentages and then decide how to
play your own hand.
In practice, most players don't arrive at exact figures like 20 percent or 60
percent, but at the very least they try to decide whether their opponent has a
bad hand, a mediocre hand, a good hand, or a great hand. Let's say your
opponent bets on the end. Usually when a person bets, it represents either a
bluff, a good hand, or a great hand, but not a mediocre hand. If your opponent
had a mediocre hand, he would probably check. If you have only a mediocre hand
yourself, you have to decide what the chances are that your opponent is
bluffing and whether those chances warrant a call in relation to the pot odds.
If you have a very good hand, you must decide whether your opponent has a good
hand or a great hand. If you think the chances are high he has only a good
hand, you would raise. But if you think he may very well have a great hand, you
would just call. If you are virtually certain he has a great hand, you might
even fold your very good hand, depending upon the size of the pot. You ask
yourself two questions: What does it look like my opponent is representing?
Could he have the hand he's representing and have played it the way he did?
Once you draw your conclusions about your opponent's hand on the basis of his
play and his up cards, you decide on the basis of your own holding and the size
of the pot whether to bet, check, call, raise, or whatever.
We have seen that in open-handed games one way to read hands is to start by
considering a variety of possible hands an opponent might have and then
eliminate some of those possibilities as the hand develops. A second or, more
accurately, a complementary way to read hands is to work backward. It is that
sort of thing my high-low split opponent did. If, for instance, the last card
in hold 'em is a deuce and an opponent who'd been quiet from the start suddenly
bets, you think back on his play in earlier rounds. If there was betting on the
flop or on fourth street,
that player would not have called with nothing but two 2s in the hole. So he is
betting now either as a bluff or has something other than three 2s. If, on the
other hand, everyone checked on the flop and on fourth street, it's very possible the
player caught three 2s on the end. Every step of the way you must work forward
and backward to zero in on your opponent's most likely hand.
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