ADVANTAGE OF THE SEMI-BLUFF
First, the semi-bluff
tends to make your opponent play incorrectly according to
the Fundamental Theorem of Online Poker Games. When you semi-bluff, you
presumably do not have the best hand. If your opponent could
see your cards, his correct play would be to raise. However,
since you are representing something with your semi-bluff,
opponents will nearly always only call. Sometimes they will
make the worst play of all by folding the best hand.
Second, when the hand with which you are semi-bluffing is
111 fact the best hand at the moment, by betting you are
not making the mistake the mistake of giving worse hands
free cards. As we saw in the previous page, it is critical
to bet the best hand with more cards to come in order to
avoid giving people a free card. Not only will a worse hand
usually fold, which is fine, especially if the opponent
is getting proper odds to call, but a better hand might
fold. If the better hand calls, which is more likely, you
still have the chance of improving to the best hand. If,
instead of betting, you check and a better hand bets, your
hand probably justifies a call. So you have gained nothing
by checking. You do not get yourself a free card. Hence,
you are more likely to semi-bluff in first position than
in last, where you have the option of giving yourself a
free card.
A third advantage of the semi-bluff is that, used correctly,
it adds an enormous amount of deceptiveness to your games.
This is a good spot for a semi-bluff raise even if you are
almost certain your opponent will call you. Why? Well, notice
what happens when you catch certain cards on fifth street.
If you catch a card such as the or for that matter any card
that looks as if it's given you a straight or a flush, your
opponent will very possibly fold, if not a better hand,
certainly a hand that was justified in calling against a
measly pair of 7s. Suppose you catch a jack or a queen,
making a pair on board. Now your opponent almost has to
fold because of the strength you showed by your earlier
raise. However, if he in fact has two kings, he is making
a mistake folding against two smaller pair. Finally, notice
what happens if you catch the one card that will make you
root for a call, namely a 7, which gives you three-of-a-kind.
Because of your previous bet, that 7 will look completely
harmless, as though it didn't help your hand one bit. Now
when you bet, your opponent will keep coming just as you
want him to. In sum, your semi-bluff raise on fourth street
has made subsequent cards that help you only moderately
look very dangerous, while it has made cards that give you
a big hand look insignificant.
This last point is an additional benefit of the semi-bluff
in stud games but especially in hold 'em. When you do hit
the card that makes your hand, your opponent will often
misread it because of your bet on the previous round (except
in the cases where you were straightforwardly betting on
the come with a flush or a straight draw). Thus, you may
win a larger pot than you would have otherwise expected.
Both the semi-bluff and betting a marginal hand rather than
risking giving a worse hand a free card are cases of the
general precept that it is usually better to be betting
than calling. By betting as a semi-bluff you have a chance
of winning the pot right there, something you are usually
hoping to do, and you have shown greater strength than you
really have. If you catch scary-looking cards after you
have been called, you are still likely to win pots you wouldn't
otherwise have won. When you bet now, your opponent is quite
likely to fold. On the other hand, when you don't improve
and are caught in a semi-bluff, that can be of value as
an advertisement for the future.
A final advantage of the semi-bluff, is that you can sometimes
use it to get a free card. Let's say an opponent in hold
'em bets on the flop, and you raise with a four-flush. If
that player calls your raise, it is likely he will check
to you on fourth street. If you haven't made the flush,
you have the option of checking behind him for a free card.
