Bluffing According To Your Opponent
You must, of course, consider your opponent when deciding
whether to bet a fair hand for value or to bluff. Against a perpetual caller,
obviously you should rarely bluff. However, against such a player you should
bet any hand that you figure is a reasonable favorite to be the best hand. In
contrast, against a tough player capable of tough folds, you can get away with
bluffs more often, but you should be more reluctant to bet your fair hands for
value. A tough opponent is not likely to pay you off with his worse hands, and
when he does call, he's likely to show down a hand that beats you.
Here is a typical situation showing when a bluff is right and when it is not.
Let's say in draw poker you draw three cards to a pair of jacks, and your
opponent draws three to what you suspect is a pair of aces. First, we'll assume
your opponent is the type of player who will almost always fold if his hand
doesn't improve. In this instance, your play is to bluff if you don't improve
since you may make your opponent throw away his pair of aces. However, if you
make jacks up, you should check rather than bet for value since you are a big
underdog if you bet and get called. If your opponent calls, he is likely to
have made aces up.
Now let's assume your opponent is the type who almost never folds. Against this
player you cannot bluff with one pair because he will almost certainly call you
with his bigger pair.
However, if you make jacks up against him, then you should bet for value since
your two pair is almost a 5-to-2 favorite to be the best hand when you get
called. The difference is that this opponent will call with one pair of aces as
well as with aces up, whereas the first opponent would most likely not have
called with only a pair of aces.
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