EXCEPTIONS
WHEN CALLING IS CORRECT
We have said that
either folding or raising is the correct play against a
possible semi-bluff most of the time. There are three situations
in which just calling would be correct.
Calling a Possible Semi-Bluff When the Pot is Large
First, you would call when the pot is large,
even if there's a chance your opponent is semi-bluffing.
Possessing any kind of competitive hand yourself, you certainly
don't want to give away a big pot to a possible semi-bluff.
So you can't fold. At the same time, there is no point in
risking a raise since, because of the size of the pot, your
opponent will call even if he is semi-bluffing. And if he's
not semi-bluffing but has the best hand, he may reraise
you. Therefore, the only play is to call.
Calling a Possible Bet On the Come
Secondly, in stud and hold 'em games, it is usually
a mistake to raise with a good but not a great hand when
you think your opponent - particularly a very tough opponent
- has bet or raised on the come for a flush or a straight.
If his bet was legitimate, he probably has you beat, so
you're simply donating money to the pot. If he was on the
come, he has an easy call of your raise, which eliminates
most of the reasons for you to make it. Thus, even if you
were quite sure that the Q?J?9? earlier in this topic had
only a four-flush, you would not be correct in raising.
You would only call.
However, when you call an opponent who you think is on the
come, you usually do so with the intention of betting right
out on the next round any time that opponent draws a blank
card that would not make his hand if he was in fact on the
come. You now become the favorite if your opponent was on
the come, and you don't want to give him a free card.
There is a mathematical reason for you to play your hand
this way. Let's say you bet with two cards to come, and
someone raises you. You estimate that there is a one-third
chance that player has you beat and a two-thirds chance
he is on a draw. Nevertheless in most cases he is still
a mathematical favorite. So you can only call the raise
since you're the underdog. However, when the next card cannot
have made his flush or straight if he was drawing to it,
now, with only one card to come, you have reverted to being
the favorite. So you should usually bet. On the other hand,
if that card makes the possible flush or straight, you should
usually check and fold if your opponent bets, unless you
are getting good enough pot odds to chase. Your opponent
almost certainly has you beat, whether he was originally
betting a legitimate hand or betting on the come.
Here is an example of this calling defense against a possible
semi-bluff that came up when you was playing recently in
a seven-stud games. you started with a three-flush and a
10 showing and was lucky enough to make three 8s on fifth
street. You bet, and a good player who caught a K? with
the J? as his door card raised. You reasoned the raise meant
one of three things. Either my opponent had started with
kings in the hole, in which case he was raising with the
best hand; or he had started with two jacks, made kings
up, and raised, figuring you was betting 10s and 8s; or
he had a flush or a straight draw. You called the raise.
When no heart, ace, or 9 fell on sixth street, which might
make a straight or flush, you bet right out, much to my
opponent's surprise, for my opponent had been expecting
to get a free card. It turned out the opponent was in fact
on a flush draw with a small pair, and the three 8s held
up. (Of course, if a heart, ace, or 9 had fallen, the play
in this instance would have been to check and call since
there was a reasonable chance for me to make a full house
on the last card.)
