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The
Reality of Bluffing
With this proviso, it must be repeated that from a theoretical
point of view, bluffing is an extremely important aspect
of poker. As a deceptive weapon, it is at least as important
as slowplaying. Whereas slowplaying suggests weakness when
you have strength, bluffing announces strength when you
are weak. Recollect the Fundamental Theorem of Online Poker Games: Any
time an opponent plays his hand incorrectly based on what
you have, you have gained; and any time he plays his hand
correctly based on what you have, you have lost. An opponent
who knows you never bluff is much less likely to play his
hand incorrectly. Any time you bet, he will know you are
betting for value. He will play only when he figures he
has a better hand than yours or when he is getting sufficient
pot odds to call with more cards to come. Bluffing, then,
or the possibility that you might be bluffing, is another
way of keeping your opponents guessing. Your occasional
bluffs disguise not just the hands with which you are in
fact bluffing but also your legitimate hands, with which
your opponents know you might be bluffing.
To see how important bluffing is, imagine that you are up
against an opponent who on the last round bets $20 into
a $100 pot. You are getting 6-to-1 from the pot if you call.
However, you know you can only win, as is often the case,
if your opponent is bluffing. Let's say you know three opponents
well. The first never bluffs in this spot, so your response
to that player's bet is easy: You fold with the full knowledge
that you have not cost yourself any money. The second opponent
frequently bluffs. Once again your response is easy: You
call, knowing you are going to win that last bet so often
that calling must result in a long-run profit. The third
player is the problem. He bets in such a way that the odds
are about 6-to-1 against his bluffing. In fact, he can tell
you in advance that if he bets, he will be bluffing once
in seven times.
Now you have a tough decision. You must choose between two
equally upsetting alternatives. You are getting 6-to-1 from
a pot you can win only if your opponent is bluffing, and
the odds against your opponent's bluffing are 6-to-1. If
you fold, you know there's a chance your opponent stole
the pot from you; but if you call, you know that six times
out of seven you are simply donating your money to your
opponent. Thus, a person who bluffs with approximately the
right frequency - and also, of course, in a random way -
is a much better poker player and will win much more money
in the long run than a person who virtually never bluffs
or a person who bluffs too much. The person who never bluffs
will never get much action. The person who always bluffs
will get all the action he wants until he runs out of money.
But the person who bluffs correctly keeps his true holdings
disguised and is constantly forcing his opponents into tough
decisions, some of which are bound to be wrong.
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