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THINGS
TO REMEMBER
While calling may be a good defense against the semi-bluff
in situations similar to the three described, remember that
normally the correct play is to fold with marginal hands,
and if folding isn't correct, then you should raise. We'll
conclude this topic with an example of each response to
the possible semi-bluff:
Your opponent bets. How should you play ?
You should fold without hesitation. Even though your opponent
may be betting a four-flush or a straight draw, you have
too many ways to lose. Your opponent might not even get
the flush or straight but make a pair of l0s or kings to
beat you
games theory cannot replace sound judgment. It should only
be used when you think your opponent's judgment is as good
as or better than yours or when you simply don't know your
opponent. Furthermore, games theory can be used accurately
to bluff or call a possible bluff only in a situation where
the bettor obviously either has the best hand or is bluffing
- for example, a player in seven-card stud betting into
your pair of aces with an obvious flush draw. However, if
the bettor may be betting a legitimate hand that is not
the best hand, then normal Heads-Up-play would apply.
When using games
theory to decide whether to bluff, you must determine the
pot odds your opponent is getting if you bet and then randomly
bluff in such a way that the odds against your bluffing
are identical to or almost identical to your opponent's
pot odds. If your opponent is getting 5-to-l, the odds against
your bluffing should be 5-to-1. By playing this way, you
give your opponent no correct decision. He does just as
well - or badly - in the long run by calling or folding.
When using games theory to decide whether to call a possible
bluff - assuming your hand can beat only a bluff and assuming
your judgment doesn't give you a hint-you must determine
the odds your opponent is getting on a bluff. Make the ratio
of your calls to your folds the same as those odds. If your
opponent is getting 4-to-1 odds on a bluff, you must call
randomly four out of five times to make that bluffing unprofitable.
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