Things To Remember
While calling may be a good defense against the semi-bluff
in situations similar to the three described, remember that normally the
correct play is to fold with marginal hands, and if folding isn't correct, then
you should raise. We'll conclude this topic with an example of each response to
the possible semi-bluff:
Your opponent bets. How should you play?
You should fold without hesitation. Even though your opponent may be betting
four-flush or a straight draw, you have too many ways to lose. Your opponent
might not even get the flush or straight but make a pair of l0s or kings to
beat you
games theory cannot replace sound judgment. It should only be used when you
think your opponent's judgment is as good as or better than yours or when you
simply don't know your opponent. Furthermore, games theory can be used
accurately to bluff or call a possible bluff only in a situation where the
bettor obviously either has the best hand or is bluffing - for example, a
player in seven-card stud betting into your pair of aces with an obvious flush
draw. However, if the bettor may be betting a legitimate hand that is not the
best hand, then normal Heads-Up-play would apply.
When using games theory to decide whether to bluff, you must determine the pot
odds your opponent is getting if you bet and then randomly bluff in such a way
that the odds against your bluffing are identical to or almost identical to
your opponent's pot odds. If your opponent is getting 5-to-l, the odds against
your bluffing should be 5-to-1. By playing this way, you give your opponent no
correct decision. He does just as well - or badly - in the long run by calling
or folding.
When using games theory to decide whether to call a possible bluff - assuming
your hand can beat only a bluff and assuming your judgment doesn't give you a
hint-you must determine the odds your opponent is getting on a bluff. Make the
ratio of your calls to your folds the same as those odds. If your opponent is
getting 4-to-1 odds on a bluff, you must call randomly four out of five times
to make that bluffing unprofitable.
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