TYPE OF SEMI BLUFFS
Betting
on the come is the most commonly used form of the semi-bluff.
When you raise with a four-flush in draw poker, you are
using a semi-bluff. You are hoping your opponents fold right
there, but if they don't, you may make your flush and beat
them anyway. Raising with in draw lowball is a semi-bluff;
you'd like your opponents to fold but don't mind a call
that much since you have a good chance of drawing the best
low hand. In hold 'em, betting after the flop with the third
pair and an ace kicker or the third pair and an inside straight
draw would be a semi-bluff: In this case, you want very
much to win instantly, but if you are called you still have
a chance of outdrawing your opponent.
You make a semi-bluff raise, representing a straight. You'd
like to win right there, but you have a good chance of making
the straight if you are called. Furthermore, you'll almost
certainly get a free card on the next round when the king
checks to you. Also if you don't make the straight, you
may possibly win with two pair or three 4s.
Semi-bluffs can be much more varied and often more complex
than simply betting on the come. They can range from almost
pure bluffs, when your hand has little chance of catching
up if your bet is called, to a bet with a hand that may
possibly be the best hand. In the first case, you have to
think you have almost as good a chance of getting away with
the bluff as you would with a pure bluff, taking into account
the pot odds you're getting. In the second case, when you
may in fact have the best hand, it is essential to bet to
keep from giving a worse hand a free card. Betting is particularly
important when you're in first position, in which case you
should apply the following rule: If your hand is worth a
call or almost worth a call when someone else bets, it is
better to bet yourself, especially when you have little
fear of a raise and when there is some chance you will win
right there by making your opponent fold.
We'll look at two examples of semi-bluffs from seven-card
stud. In the first, you are making a semi-bluff bet because
your hand is worth a call if you checked and your opponent
bet.
Right off the bat a queen raises you. You know the raiser
is not a very imaginative player, but he may be raising
with a three-flush or something like a pair of 7s in the
hole. You call.
On the next card, you catch an ace, giving you a pair of
8s and an ace, king kicker. Your opponent catches a small
card. You are high on board, and now it is very important
to bet because with a pair and two over cards your hand
is certainly worth a call if you check and your opponent
bets. Furthermore, you have little reason to think your
opponent will raise because he now fears that you have made
a pair of aces or even aces up. In fact, your opponent may
fear what you are representing so much that he might fold
the best hand.
The added equity of possibly winning right there when your
opponent folds is the primary reason to semi-bluff. If you
had checked your pair of 8s with an ace, king and called
your opponent's bet, you would have a reasonable chance
of making kings up, aces up, or three 8s to beat his queens
or queens up. By betting out instead of checking and calling,
you add to these chances the possibility of winning right
away. This possibility gives a semi-bluff greater mathematical
expectation than checking and calling since it adds another
way to win besides winding up with the best hand in the
showdown.
If you know there is no chance that your opponent will fold
a pair of queens, the semi-bluff becomes more debatable,
for by definition a semi-bluff is a bet where there is some
chance your opponent will fold a hand he should have played.
However, since you would call your opponent's bet anyway,
betting yourself still has certain advantages. Your bet
suggests more strength than you actually have. Suppose you
catch something like two running 6s. When you bet with nothing
but 8s and 6s, your opponent will probably fold a hand that
he shouldn't have if he knew what you had. Even when a semi-bluff
has no chance of making an opponent fold immediately, it
may lead him to fold later when your board appears to improve
to a better hand than you actually have. This situation
comes up only in stud games, both high and low, where your
opponent can see you "improve." It does not occur
as much in hold 'em, where everyone shares a common board,
nor, of course, in draw.
In the second semi-bluff, example from seven-card stud,
you are more of underdog if your opponent has the hand he
is representing.
Your opponent
raised on the first round, and you called with a three-flush.
Now when you pair fours in sight, you must bet even though
you have only a small pair with no over card and your chances
of making a spade flush are about 9-to-1 against. Your opponent
will fold without a pair, which is to your advantage, and
he may fold a higher pair, thinking you've made three 4s,
which would be great. On the other hand, if he calls your
bet, you still have several ways of beating him.
