When to True Bluff
Bluffs When There are More Cards to Come
When there are more cards to come, your bluffs should rarely be pure bluffs -
that is to say, bets or raises that have little or no chance of winning if you
are called, and even taking into account the cards you may get on future
rounds. Instead your early-round bets should be semi-bluffs, those powerful,
deceptive plays. It is important to bluff occasionally on early rounds to keep
your opponents off-balance. But why do it when you have only one or two ways of
winning? For a pure bluff to work, your opponent or opponents must generally
fold immediately. However, semi-bluff has three ways of winning. It may win
because your opponent folds immediately and it may also win either because you
catch a scare card that causes your opponent to fold on a later round or
because you make the best hand.
Nevertheless, while you should usually restrict your early-round bluffs to
semi-bluffs, there is still nothing to prevent you from trying a pure bluff if
you feel there's a good chance of getting away with it. If you think your
chances of getting away with it are greater than the pot odds you are getting,
then you should go ahead and try it. Ante structure we mentioned playing in a
game where certain players played too tight for the ante. There was $10 in
antes, and if these players were the only ones in the pot, I knew I could bet
$7 with absolutely nothing and have a good chance of stealing that $10. My pot
odds in that instance were less than 1/2 to - 1, but I knew I could get away
with the bluff about 60 percent of the time. So it was a profitable play.
If you do make a pure bluff on an early round and someone raises you, don't try
to tough it out. You've been caught. Since you have no out, you don't even have
to think about continuing. Give it up, and get on with the next hand.
When you bluff with more cards to come, you often get called, and then you are
faced with deciding whether or not to continue the bluff on the next round.
Thus, when you bluff with a hand that probably can't improve to the best hand,
you need to compare your chances of getting away with it to your effective odds
if you are planning to continue betting on future rounds even when you don't
improve.
For instance, if there is $100 in the pot in a $10 - $20 game with two cards to
come, you may have to bluff twice. If you think you will bluff twice, you are
risking $40 to win $120 - the $100 in the pot plus the $20 your opponent calls
on the first round. So when you make that first $20 bet, you cannot think you
are getting 5-to-1 from the pot. Rather you are getting 3-to-1 ($120-to-$40).
For the play to be profitable, there must be a better than 3-to-1 chance your
opponent will fold after the second bet. This is especially true of pure bluffs
where you have no way of winning by improving to the best hand.
Deciding whether to continue with a semi-bluff really depends on how the next
card affects your chances and how your opponent's card seems to have affected
his. Each individual round should be evaluated separately. Suppose you make a
semi-bluff raise in seven-card you get called by a 9. Whether you should give
up the bluff on the next round depends on what you catch, what your opponent
catches, and also what kind of player your opponent is. If with your A, K, 5
you proceed to catch a queen suited with the king and your opponent catches a
deuce, you ought to bet again; but if your opponent catches, let's say, an 8
suited with the 9 and you catch a 3, give it up. Check, and if your opponent
bets, throw the hand away. Your chances have not improved, and it looks as if
your opponent's have. He may have a flush draw, a straight draw, or simply a
pair of 9s, but whatever he has, he looks like too much of a favorite for you
to call when he bets.
It takes experience to know when to give up on a bluff and when to pursue it.
When your first bet is called, presumably your opponent has something. If you
sense he's getting stronger and you don't improve, give it up. If you sense
he's weak and staying weak and if you think he thinks you're strong, continue
the bluff and hope to drive him out.
Bluffs When All the Cards are Out
When all the cards are out, you obviously can no longer semi-bluff. You have
either made your hand or you haven't, so all bluffs on the end are pure bluffs.
They are bets or raises that you do not expect to win if you are called.
When you are sitting there knowing you have the worst hand, knowing you cannot
win by checking, knowing you cannot win by calling your opponent's bet, the
only question is whether or not to try to bluff. You should not if you think
the chances your opponent will call are too great in relation to the pot odds
you are getting. You should if you think your opponent will fold often enough
for a bluff to show a profit. If there is $100 in the pot, you should make a
$20 bluff if you think your opponent will fold more than once in six times. If
there is $60 in the pot, you must assume your opponent will fold more than once
in four times before you try to bluff. If there is $140 in the pot, your
opponent needs to fold more than once in eight times. But, of course, the larger
the pot, the better pot odds your opponent is getting to call your bet and the
more likely it is he will call with any kind of a fair hand.
Accurate assessment of your chances of pulling off a bluff comes, like so many
advanced poker plays, only with experience. You must first be able to read
hands. You are obviously not going to bluff out an opponent with a lock or any
sort of big hand. In general, the weaker you think your opponent's hand is, the
higher the chances your bluff will succeed.
Second, you must be able to read opponents. It's generally easier to bluff out
a timid opponent than a loose opponent, and it's generally easier to bluff out
a tough opponent than a weak one who looks for any reason to call, including
the possibility that you might be bluffing. In essence, you must consider your
specific opponent in each situation before deciding whether to try a bluff.
Even the way in which play developed in previous hands can have a bearing on
whether a bluff is now right or not.
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