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WHEN
TO FOLD AND WHEN TO RAISE
We have said, up to
this point, that the two main defenses against the semi-bluff
are simply giving up and folding, or raising. (In all cases
we are assuming the pot is relatively small.) The question
now is when to do the one and when to do the other. That
is, when do you fold, and when do you raise?
Obviously when you have a very poor hand, you fold. When
you have a big hand, you raise unless it's so big you want
to slow play and trap your opponent later. The difficult
decisions occur when you have a medium-value hand. There
are three principle criteria you should use in deciding
whether to raise or fold:
1. The chances your opponent is bluffing or semi-bluffing.
2. The chances that opponent will outdraw you if he is betting
with the worst hand.
3. The chances you will outdraw that opponent if he is betting
the best hand.
The more you believe your opponent is bluffing or semi-bluffing,
and the greater your chances of outdrawing him if he does
have a legitimate hand, the more you will tend to raise.
On the other hand, the smaller these chances are and the
greater the chances your opponent will outdraw you if he
is betting the worst hand, the more you would tend to fold.
Recall an example earlier in this topic. The chances that
your opponent had the best hand were quite high (48 percent);
the chances of your outdrawing him were so low as to be
virtually nonexistent. At the same time the chances of your
opponent outdrawing you were very high (you were only a
6-to-5 favorite if he didn't already have you beat). It
was the combination of all these chances that dictated a
fold.
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