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Independent Trial

A online blackjack games player can expect to lose ten hands in a row roughly once in ten hours of slow land play. You do the math for the size of that bet. Unfortunately, an 11-loss streak is just as likely to go to 12 as one loss is to become two. It's a law. Not Murphy's law, probability's. Chasing losses (the term for increasing bets during a losing streak) is the most dangerous, wrong-headed practice a gambler can engage in.

Tricks with bet-sizing cannot affect whether you win or lose, only how fast it happens. All betting systems based on the results of the previous wager are snake oil. This will go against your intuition as you play. This is the battle the player must wage - using the facts of the long-term to override the impulse of the moment.

A friend of mine once met a religious cult member whose parents paid to have him kidnapped and deprogrammed. He resisted the hours of reverse-indoctrination by repeating to himself over Over I, must not leave the church, I must not leave the church." Your mantra for today: progression is illusion, progressions is illusion. Mantra for tomorrow: Satan says double-or-nothing, Satan says double-or-nothing. hopefully, the discussion in this page will have given force to those mottoes.

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Calculating Odds of Winning

The concept of how your hand is mathematically affected by the number of other players is a critical part of fonnulating basic strategy, and we will return to it. But poker is never as simple as knowing the percentage chance of a certain hand being best among a certain number of players. First of all, every time you make a bet or raise, you have a chance of winning that has nothing to do with your cards, since all your opponents may fold. Second, your opponents do not have a random distribution of hands: the players with weak hands fold, which means that opponents who are sticking around (should) have hands that are better than random. Finally, in every variety of modern poker, you don't receive your entire hand at once. Instead, you receive it in steps, and you must make betting decisions as the hand develops. So in order to have a handle on your expected value, you must constantly evaluate your odds of winning based not only on the strength of what you hold but on what you and your opponents' hands are likely to become.

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