To avoid the perception of being a sensible person,
little matchplayer has to accept a little more variance
and play a little longer. Variance means that swings
in fortune are fast and wide. The severity of fluctuations
in a bankroll are determined by the size of the bets
(see page 8). The careful bonus player needs to accept
a few losses in order to get the larger wins. The
10 to 20 percent deposit bonus will put you ahead
When going for a $200 bonus on the usual $I,000 deposit,
do not stop at one or two hundred ahead. Keep playing
either until there's a healthy-looking win, or a notable
loss. A formula that is probably undetectable but
still has a healthy edge is to play until either doubling
the deposit or losing half. (If a doubling comes quickly,
it is probably wise to play some more and grind it
out with small bets.) Neither computer nor operator
will be able to distinguish such a person from a gambler.
Advantage players should strive to appear like regular
gamblers. By betting bigger and accepting more variance,
they can present a difficult puzzle. Consider this:
to the house, the most desirable gamblers are those
who bet wildly on hunches, or chase losses by pressing
their bets (shop talk for increasing the size of the
wagers). An e-casino's risk analysts could automatically
review any bonus claim where the action does not equal
double the deposit. An aggressive player betting $100
a hand can burn through a $500 deposit in 60 seconds.
He might just barely reach the minimum action of deposit
plus the bonus, much less reach an audit threshold
of double. Is the e-casino is going to deny a bonus
to this most valuable of all players? A few might,
but they are losing the cream to the dairy processors.
to get a good look at the boards on fifth street,
because this is when players are most likely to fold.
In a hand where many players have stayed in, you have
~seen enough up cards that the richness or leanness
of your outs in the deck will have a bigger impact
on your decisions. Remember, the ratio you are referencing
for this ~ is the odds of hitting on individual cards.
Very rich decks can make betting for value the right
play with a flush draw or high straight draw. A lean
deck for a middle or low straight draw might not be
worth a call now if higher draws are apparent among
your opponents. As for your opponents' outs, you should
continue to monitor key ranks that help their pairs,
and you should also take a look at which cards they
might need for straights. Knowing that these cards
have been burned can be very valuable information
after sixth street falls.