The "Perfect" Bet

Nonetheless, the idea got me thinking. Plainly, it was unnecessary for the deck to be so extreme (rich with tens). If the deck was composed mostly of l0s, the player might still have a large advantage. Then it occurred to me that a successful counting system would detect concentrations of cards, which were not intrinsically good or bad for the tie, in small subsets. Therefore, a point-count system would be of no use; the player would have to achieve close to computer-perfect play. This can be done by striking off the cards as they are dealt on the casino tally sheet, or scorecard. Then the player can know the exact composition of the cards remaining to be dealt, and analyze the composition for favorable tie wagers. If the tie bet is favorable, he can put down a very large wager, since the odds are in his favor. Of course, this may attract attention and suspicion from casino personnel, particularly if the player is winning, so it may be advisable to develop some form of coded notation for this purpose.

With compositions composed of a quarter deck or less, lOs become very important in determining favorable tie wagers. Note that this result is contrary to Griffin's findings. This is because late in the deck, the increased fluctuation means the number of lOs tends to dominate the deck structure. The following table explains how extreme numbers of lOs can give the player an edge:

 Cards Remaining Tens Necessary for Tie Advantage + One Pair 6 6 4 7 6 6 8 6 5 9 7 6 10 8 6 II 8 7 12 9 8 13 10 9 14 10 15 II 16 II 17 12 18 12 19 13 20 14
 [ 1 ][ 2 ][ 3 ][ 4 ][ 5 ][ 6 ][ 7 ]
Final Betting

One particular opportunity is when there are two or more different low wheel cards (A, 2, or 3) on the board, which frequently spoils the low hands of players with premium starters. Those players will often go to the showdown with only a live card. If you are in last position, it can be worth a call to try to snatch the low if you can come in with two low cards that will beat their live one. This is why you'll occasionally see garbage like 3-5 and 4-6 winning the low.

With a low that is good but short of the nuts, you will usually be trapped into calling on the river. (You shouldn't be drawing to non-nut lows in the first place, but it happens.) Just don't let yourself get caught between two raisers.