personnel know that variation in bet size is part
of most winning systems. If you could get away with
it, you should bet more whenever you have a larger
advantage over the dealer. Your expected win is how
much you bet times your advantage, summed over all
the hands you play.
can demonstrate that an optimal betting scheme involves
betting an amount that varies directly with your advantage.
The higher the count per deck, the higher your advantage,
and thus the more you should bet. Thorp, being a mathematician,
recommends bet size variation; when he started playing
his big bet was ten times his small bet. Revere recommends
less drastic bet size variation. Both Thorp and Revere
recommend making a small "waiting bet" when
the pack is neutral or the dealer has the advantage,
and making larger bets when you have the advantage.
Casino personnel look for this sort of bet-size management,
and can spot it because it differs from a typical
gambler's variation in bet sizes.
If you wish to bet more when your advantage in-creases
or less when it decreases, be certain that your bet
size variation looks like that of a gambler. A gambler
often will try to capitalize on winning streaks. After
winning a few consecutive hands, the gambler feels
lucky and increases the bet size. Of course winning
streaks cannot be extrapolated.
you have KK, would you want a player with 55 and a
lot of chips to call a small raise from you? I wouldn't,
because of a concept called reverse implied odds.
You are a 4:1 favorite 46 to win heads up. But if
you make a small raise and he calls, yuo'll either
win that little amount or lose a lot more. In other
words, either the flop will miss the 55 completely
and he'll fold after your bet, or he'll flop a set.
Putting a 55 all-in before the flop when you have
KK is different. Then, your upside is bigger compared
to your downside and it's worth the risk to let your
opponent draw to his 55 to beat you.