Bet Size Variation

Casino personnel know that variation in bet size is part of most winning systems. If you could get away with it, you should bet more whenever you have a larger advantage over the dealer. Your expected win is how much you bet times your advantage, summed over all the hands you play.

Any mathematician can demonstrate that an optimal betting scheme involves betting an amount that varies directly with your advantage. The higher the count per deck, the higher your advantage, and thus the more you should bet. Thorp, being a mathematician, recommends bet size variation; when he started playing his big bet was ten times his small bet. Revere recommends less drastic bet size variation. Both Thorp and Revere recommend making a small "waiting bet" when the pack is neutral or the dealer has the advantage, and making larger bets when you have the advantage. Casino personnel look for this sort of bet-size management, and can spot it because it differs from a typical gambler's variation in bet sizes.

If you wish to bet more when your advantage in-creases or less when it decreases, be certain that your bet size variation looks like that of a gambler. A gambler often will try to capitalize on winning streaks. After winning a few consecutive hands, the gambler feels lucky and increases the bet size. Of course winning streaks cannot be extrapolated.

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Make a Small Raise

If you have KK, would you want a player with 55 and a lot of chips to call a small raise from you? I wouldn't, because of a concept called reverse implied odds. You are a 4:1 favorite 46 to win heads up. But if you make a small raise and he calls, yuo'll either win that little amount or lose a lot more. In other words, either the flop will miss the 55 completely and he'll fold after your bet, or he'll flop a set.

Putting a 55 all-in before the flop when you have KK is different. Then, your upside is bigger compared to your downside and it's worth the risk to let your opponent draw to his 55 to beat you.