-- stop guessing whether you'll win your next bet
based upon what's been happening up to now. If it
had anything to do with that, there'd be winners all
over the place. Yet, most gamblers do believe that
the recent past does influence the immediate future.
It's a widespread instinctive belief that generates
from a basic, but almost universal misunderstanding
of how chance events work.
How many times have you seen a Online Blackjack Games
player sit down and begin to play very poised at first?
Then after losing four or five hands in a row, he
raises his bet from $15 up to $50 or $75 on the next
hand. Why? Because he was, "due to win",
of course! After all, this person knows he has to
win a bet sooner or later --so that winning hand must
be growing more and more likely with each deal, right?
Remember, that big Online Blackjack Games accountant
in the sky (mentioned in page One) only exists in
your mind. The gambling gods couldn't care less about
evening out the score, and the law of averages couldn't
care less either. The cards don't know you've just
lost five in a row, and you're not any more likely
to win your next hand because of it*. Sure, things
will come close to balancing out eventually because
the odds are so close to 50-50. That's a given. But
eventually is the key word here.
Hey, wait a minute! Notice that on one hand I'm pro-claiming
you're never "due" to win -- yet on the
other hand I'm conceding that things will eventually
even out. Well, how can these two things both be true
at the same time? Now, listen carefully; this is important.
*Technically in Online Blackjack Games, the player
tends to do better with high cards, and the dealer
wins more often with low cards. So if the player has
lost several consecutive hands, there is a slightly
elevated probability that he has used up an abundance
of small cards in doing so. Hence, there could be
a surplus of undealt high cards at this point in the
deal. But this is an unrelated and negligible factor,
applicable to Online Blackjack Games alone. To consider
it here would only be misleading.
decided to flip a coin 100 times, you'd be right to
expect 50 heads and 50 tails. But what if the first
20 tosses happened to come up all heads? How many
heads should you have at the end of your 100 flips
now? If you brought in a professional Las Vegas oddsmaker
to set an "over/under" betting line on this,
what should his number be? Should it still be 50 total
heads? No the answer is 60. Why? Because no matter
what's happened thus far;
is, by a wide margin, the best of the four playing
styles. You don't play a lot of hands, so you get
the benefits that selectivity brings. When you do
get involved you play aggressively and get the benefits
that aggressiveness offers.
players don't get full value for their aggression
because they're involved in too many pots for their
raises to earn respect. As a tight-aggressive player,
you will be able to steal a number of pots when your
respectable starting hand doesn't improve.