know 3 cards out of the 52 in the pack. You know your
ace, the dealer's ace, and your own 10. That leaves
49 unknown cards remaining in the deck. Since there
are originally 16 10-value cards (lOs, jacks, queens,
and kings) and 37 nontens, the remaining deck has
34 nontens (subtracting the two aces) and 15 tens
(subtracting the single 10 in the player's hand).
The odds against the dealer having Online Blackjack
Games are now 34-15, more than 2-1. The house is only
paying 2-1 on the bet, and thus the casino has an
advantage of 8.1 percent on this insurance wager.
That's why it shouldn't be made.
What if you held a 9> 6 on the opening round, and
the dealer's upcard was an ace? The ratio of nontens
to tens will now be 33-16, still higher than 2-1,
and still giving the house an edge of 2.1 percent.
Again, the bet shouldn't be made.
It is only when the ratio has fallen below 2-1 that
this bet is worthwhile, but this fact is difficult
to ascertain unless you are counting cards or can
make an instant calculation at the table.
Suppose, for example, that on the first round of play
you are playing two hands. One hand contains 9, 6
and the other 5, 4. The dealer shows an ace. Now the
ratio is 31-16, or less than 2-1, and the player has
a slight advantage of 2.1 percent. In this case the
insurance bet is valid.
casino in the world that has both a sports book and
a poker room has the two next to each other. One of
the most important poker lessons comes from the world
of baseball. Branch Rickey, the General Manager of
the then Brooklyn Dodgers, is famous for saying that
"Luck is the residue of design." You will
find that the harder you study, the luckier you'll
appear, because you will be putting yourself into
positions where luck can complement your skill.
who blames luck for his losses will probably improve
a little over time, simply through osmosis and experience,
but it's possible to practice one's mistakes for years.
If you want to improve, keep your ego in your pocket;
eventually you won't have to blame your losses on
bad luck, because you won't lose very often.