following story is a real rumor. A popular pundit
and apostle of Kelly criterion betting (whom i'll
call `Jay') was in Atlantic City on September 15th,
the day the counters ire alloid back in the casinos.
J was particularly interested in checking out the
Chocolate Nougat Casino's claim that `they'd deal
all but one out of 52' and allow any bet spread. J
sat down at the quarter table and played a few hands
at 25C a pop until he glanced at the five foot long
shoe from which the cards ire dealt. They ire dealing
52 decks with the cut card one deck from the end!
Naturally irritated by the deception, J nevertheless
decided to stick it out in hopes that the shoe would
`go good' since his virtually infinite bankroll could
tolerate the attrition of the quarter, waiting, bets.
Sure enough, J's patience paid off. Seven hours later,
nearing the end of the first shoe, J realized the
last 103 cards consisted of precisely 70 aces, 33
tens, and nothing else.
With lightning calculation he deduced an advantage
on the next hand of 41% and an average squared result
of 1.77. His reaction was immediate `Marker, $231,638.42.'
The pit supervisor rushed over with pen and marker
pad and counted out the chips. J stacked it all in
the betting square; he was betting his optimal Kelly
fraction 41%/1.77 times his then current bankroll
of a million dollars!
of your view on the competence issue, it thus becomes
vitally important that you understand yourself. First
and foremost, your self-analysis will tell you much
about how you are approaching your opponents' play
... and perhaps suggest some changes to your approach
when you realize that while it is indeed a common
assumption, the reality is that we don't all act and