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Players who have just seen a face card come out will often refuse to hit their own stiff hands, believing that "pictures always follow pictures." Clearly, a face card can't always follow another face card (what if it was the last one?). In fact, it turns out that given that a picture card has just appeared, the chances of the next one also being a picture actually decrease.

This can be likened to a gumball machine where a known number of yellow gumballs (representing the picture cards) and green gumballs (representing the other cards) have been mixed together. Let's say we buy a gumball and it's yellow. The chance that the next one is also yellow has clearly decreased, since we've already taken one of the yellows out.

Similarly, all else being equal, given that the last card was a picture, it is less likely that the next card will be another picture card.

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Perilous Play
Whether you lend poker money to a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger, there are almost no possible scenarios wherein you wind up better off long term. Even in those rare cases when nothing bad happens immediately, there are unpleasant long-term side effects. Be anti-Nike and "Just don't do it."

Examine the situation. If the fellow is a local, surely he has friends, or at least people who know him better than you do. If these people aren't cashing the check, why should you? If the fellow isn't a local, how did he wind up in a strange cardroom without money? Where is the job that is paying him on Friday, if he isn't local?

You shouldn't ask these questions: that leads to more trouble. Just say sorry, you don't lend and you don't borrow and if he keeps bothering you, ask the management to clear him out.
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