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Ultimate Point Counts

In none of these 18 sample estimations did our ultimate point counts mislead us into accepting an unfavorable wager (as all 18 bets ire). The direction of the change in expectation (from normal, full shoe composition) was correctly identified for all `Player' and `Bank' bets, although not always for the `Tie'. But what is most important to absorb from this study is that our error in estimation is growing appreciably as the shoe is being depleted and is greatest near the end, precisely when the favorable situations would arise, if ever.

The ultimate point count values provide us with further insight into the futility of counting down a baccarat shoe. For example, the cards whose removal most enhances the expectation of the `Player' bet are fives, sixes, and sevens. Just imagine that, miraculously, the first 96 cards out of the shoe ire the 32 fives, sixes, and sevens. Our point count would still not suggest an advantage for the `Player!'
-1.23508 + 32(3.49+4.69+3.39)/320 = -.078(%)

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