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Game Theory and Bluffing Frequency
In actual poker situations, optimum strategy based on game theory is not always the best strategy. Obviously if you are up against an opponent who almost always calls you, then you shouldn't bluff at all. By the same token, if you are up against someone who folds too much, you should bluff with some frequency.

Game theory bears out these shifts in strategy. Notice in the first part of this page that if you bluffed with five cards instead of six - that is, slightly less than optimally - you would win $300 more per 42 hands if your opponent called rather than folded every time. However, if you bluffed with seven cards instead of six, you would win $300 more if your opponent folded rather than called every time. Here is where a player's judgment supersedes optimum game theory strategy: He would bluff a little less against opponents who call too much and a little more against opponents who fold too much.

Good, intuitive players understand this concept. If they notice they have folded on the end a few hands in a row, they are ready to call next time. Otherwise players will start bluffing them. And they use similar considerations in deciding whether to bluff themselves. It is against such expert players, whose calling and folding are right on target, or whose judgment is as good as or better than yours, that game theory becomes the perfect tool. When you use it, there is no way they can outplay you.
Position Relative to the Probable Aggressor
On the flop, you should often think of your position relative to the aggressor rather than relative to the button. For example, if you're first to act but you know the opponent on your immediate left will bet if you check, then you effectively have last position. You can be fairly sure of when a particular opponent will bet surprisingly often.
Preflop raisers often automatically bet the flop. Some players will automatically bet from late position on the flop if its checked to them.

Many players telegraph their intent to bet by prematurely reaching for their chips. When they are reaching for their chips in a natural way, as opposed to putting on a show of reaching for chips, they usually intend to bet. I'll get into that a little more in chapter 9 (tells and hand reading).
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