|
Extra
Outs
Just as many players overlook the effects of position and
exposed cards to lower the value of a hand, so too do they
sometimes overlook extra outs to increase the value of a hand.
An out is a way of improving your hand. With four hearts your
only out is another heart. But suppose you have two pair along
with the four-flush against what looks like aces up. Now you
have two outs - making a flush and a full house. Suppose you
have a four flush, two pair, and an inside straight draw.
Now you have three outs - that is, three ways of beating your
opponent with the aces up, assuming that player doesn't fill.
Each extra out increases the value of your hand, and it increases
it considerably more than may at first be apparent. Starting
off with a two-flush and a pair in seven-card stud is significantly
better than starting with a pair and no two-flush. In hold
'em, a back-door straight (that is, a possible straight requiring
two perfect cards at the end) or a back-door flush draw along
with a pair may be enough to change a fold to a call.
To see how much effect these extra outs have, let's say we
assess our hand as a 7-to-1 underdog. Now we notice we have
an extra out that is about 20-to-1 against coming in. By itself
that extra out is a long shot, but it adds tremendously to
our chances of improving. Changing those 7-to-1 and 20-to-1
odds to percentages, we have a 12'/2 percent chance and about
a 5 percent chance, which, added together, comes to approximately
171/2 percent. Returning from percentages to odds, we see
that the extra out has dropped us from a 7-to-1 underdog to
a 43/4-to-1 underdog. With pot odds of, say, 5-to-1 or 6-to-1,
a hand we would have folded now becomes one worth playing.
Always be aware of extra outs. Otherwise you may fold hands
with which you should have called. |
