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IMPLIED
ODDS
Implied odds are based on the possibility of winning money
in later betting rounds over and above what is in the pot
already. More precisely, your implied odds are the ratio of
your total expected win when your card hits to the present
cost of calling a bet. A good example of playing a hand for
the implied odds occurs in hold 'em when you have a small
pair in the hole. It's about 8-to-1 against flopping that
card to hit three-of-a-kind, but the small pair is worth playing
in most cases even getting something like 5-to-1. If there
is $50 in the pot and it is $10 to you in a $10-$20 games,
you are getting implied odds of about 150-to10, or 15-to-1,
since you should average about $100 further profit when you
do flop a set of trips. Of course, when you don't make trips,
you would normally throw away your hand rather than call a
bet on the flop.
In earlier discussions we have come across other situations
where implied odds were operating. In page Four on ante
structure, we pointed out that in games with a small ante
and a small initial bet in comparison to future bets, it pays
to play looser than the small ante would dictate for the initial
bet only. The reason is that the big bets in later rounds
give you good implied odds.
For instance, the $1-$3 and $1-$4 seven-card stud games which
you find in every card room in Las Vegas start off with a
50-cent bet. It is not correct to play very tight for this
initial bet, especially against the weaker players you tend
to find in these games. When you can see fourth street for
only 50 cents, you should, for example, call for one card
with any pair, so long as your cards are live - that is, so
long as few of the cards you need have appeared among your
opponents' exposed cards. This is because your implied odds
are enormous. Should you make two pair or, even better, three-of-a-kind,
you figure to get a lot of action from lesser hands, especially
when your initial pair is hidden.
Implied odds were operating in the example in page Six
on effective odds which advocated calling to see one card
only if the immediate pot odds justify a call though your
effective odds indicate a fold. The suggestion was that when
your card hits, you'll probably make more money on future
bets.
To take this point a step further, you might call even when
the immediate pot odds do not quite justify a call if there
is a large increase in the bet from one round to the next.
Your possible future profits when your card hits - that is,
your implied odds - will make up for the short odds you are
getting at the moment. For example, if in a $10-$20 games
an opponent bets $10 into a $20 pot, your pot odds are 3-to-1,
which would dictate throwing away, say, an open-ended straight.
However, if your hand (or your opponent) is such that should
the hand improve on the next round, you figure to beat your
opponent for another $40 on future betting rounds, then your
implied odds are $70-to-$10 or 7-to-1, which would make a
call worthwhile with an open-ender. If you miss and your opponent
bets $20 on the next round, you would once again be getting
3-to-1 odds ($60-to-$20), but your implied odds would have
diminished.
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