|
IMPLIED ODDS IN POT-LIMIT AND NO-LIMIT GAMES
In general, the larger the difference between future bets
and the present bet you have to call, the greater your implied
odds. Hence, implied odds become most significant in pot-limit
games and in no-limit games, where a future bet can be as
large as the amount of money a player has in front of him.
In fact, in these games one is almost always considering not
how much is in the pot right now, but rather how much can
be won on a future round of betting.
A classic illustration of such a situation occurred in the
final hand of the 1980 no-limit hold 'em championship at Binion's
Horseshoe Casino in Las Vegas. Doyle Brunson, a two-time world
champion, had $232,500 in front of him, and his opponent,
young Stu Ungar, a gin rummy and poker whiz from New York's
lower East Side, had $497,500. (These astronomical sums resulted
from 73 players buying into the championship tournament for
$10,000 apiece.)
In the final hand Brunson held an ace,7, and Ungar, the 4
and 5 of spades. Before the flop, $30,000 went into the pot,
and then the cards came ace,2,7. Ungar checked, but looking
at aces and 7s, Brunson bet $17,000, a bet intended to lure
Ungar in.
"I wouldn't have called too much more than that for a
gut shot," Ungar admitted. (A gut shot in poker parlance
is a draw to an inside straight.) "But if Doyle has a
hand, it's worth $17,000 because if I do catch a 3, I'm going
to bust him."
Ungar's call was strictly in terms of the implied odds he
was getting. He had no thought for the $47,000 in the pot
at the moment, which gave him less than 3-to-1 odds, but rather
for Brunson's entire $232,500 stake. With $15,000 of his own
money also in the pot, Ungar's implied odds were approximately
141/2-to1; and with four 3s available among the 47 unseen
cards, the odds against making the straight on the next card
were 103/4-to-1. Hence his call.
Needless to say, a 3 fell on fourth street. Ungar bet $40,000.
After some reflection, Brunson moved all-in with the remainder
of his chips. Since Ungar had the nuts at that point (Brunson's
only outs were an ace or a 7 on the last card to make a full
house) he called gleefully and won the world championship.
At a poker seminar in Gardena, California, the following year,
given by Brunson, myself, and draw poker expert Mike Caro,
Brunson acknowledged he played incorrectly in betting $17,000
on the flop. He said that instead of giving Ungar the chance
for a perfect card, he should have bet more than Ungar would
have been able to call, in the event he did have an inside-straight
draw - in other words, too much to warrant a call even in
terms of implied odds.
When you estimate your implied odds, you must try to predict
how much money you can win if you do make your hand. This
prediction depends on three factors
1. The size of future bets.
2. How hidden your hand is.
3. The ability of your opponents.
|
