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EFFECTIVE
ODDS
When there is only one round of betting left and only one
card to come, comparing your chances of improving to the pot
odds you are getting is a relatively straightforward proposition.
If your chances of making a hand you know will win are, say,
4-to-1 against and you must call a $20 bet for the chance
to win a $120 pot, then clearly your hand is worth a call
because you're getting 6-to-1 pot odds. Those 6-to-1 odds
the pot is offering you (excluding bets on the end) are greater
than the 4-to-1 odds against your making your hand. However,
when there is more than one card to come, you must be very
careful in determining your real pot odds. Many players make
a classic mistake: They know their chances of improving, let's
say, with three cards to come, and they compare those chances
to the pot odds they are getting right now. But such a comparison
is completely off the mark since the players are going to
have to put more money into the pot in future betting rounds,
and they must take that money into account. It's true that
the chances of making a hand improve greatly when there are
two or three cards to come, but the odds you are getting from
the pot worsen.
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The
Mathematics of Poker Games |
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