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POT ODDS
Pot odds are the odds the pot is giving you for calling a
bet. If there is $50 in the pot and the final bet was $10,
you are getting 5-to-1 odds for your call. It is essential
to know pot odds to figure out expectation. In the example
just given, if you figure your chances of winning are better
than 5-to-1, then it is correct to call. If you think your
chances are worse than 5-to-1, you should fold.
Calling on the Basis of Pot Odds When All the Cards
are Out
When all the cards are out, you must decide whether your hand
is worth a call, and that depends upon the odds you are getting
from the pot and what you think of your chances of having
the best hand. It is a judgment problem more than a math problem
because there is no way to calculate your chances of winning
precisely. If you can beat only a bluff, you have to evaluate
the chances that your opponent is bluffing. When you have
a decent hand, you must evaluate the chances that your opponent
is betting a worse hand than yours. Making these evaluations
is often not easy, especially when you have a marginal hand
like two pair in seven-card stud. Your ability to do so depends
upon your experience, especially your ability to read hands
and players. Some things can be learned only through trials
by fire at the poker table.
Calling on the Basis of Pot Odds With More Cards to
Come
What about deciding whether to call before the draw in draw
poker and in stud games when there is one card to come? Now
the math becomes important. If you know you have to improve
your hand to win, you have to determine your chances of improving
in comparison to your pot odds. With a flush draw or an open-ended
straight draw-we'll assume the games is five-card draw pokervou
would be correct to call a $10 bet when the pot is $50 since
your chance of making the flush or the straight is better
than 5-to1. Specifically, the odds of making the flush are
4.22-to-1 against and the odds of making the straight, 4.88-to-1
against.
Figuring the odds for making a hand is done on the basis of
the number of unseen cards and the number among them that
will make the hand. In five-card draw there are 47 unseen
cards- the 52 in the deck minus the five cards in your hand.
If you are holding four of a suit, nine of the 47 unseen cards
will give you a flush and 38 won't. Thus, the odds against
making the flush are 38-to-9, which reduces to 4.22-to-1.
If you are holding, say any 6, 7, jack, or queen makes the
straight, reducing the odds to exactly 2-to-1 against. Sixteen
cards make the hand, and 32 don't. The smaller the pot odds
vis-a-vis the chances of making your hand, the more reason
you have to fold. With only $30 in the pot instead of $50,
calling a $10 bet for a flush draw or a straight draw (assuming
you do not have a joker in your hand) becomes incorrect- that
is, it becomes a wager with negative expectation - unless
the implied odds are very large, as they might be in a no-limit
or pot-limit games.
It is because of the pot odds that people say you need at
least three other players in the pot to make it worth paying
to draw to a flush in draw poker. With the antes in there,
the pot odds are about 4-to-1, and when the bug is used, your
chances of making the flush are 3.8-to-1. Notice, incidentally,
the effect of the antes. The higher they are, the better the
pot odds, and the easier it is to call with a flush draw.
On the other hand, with no ante and three other players in
the pot, you'd be getting only 3-to-1 if you called a bet
before the draw, and so you'd have to fold a four-flush then
eight of the 47 unseen cards will make the straight --- four
8s and four kings -while 39 of the cards won't help, which
reduces to 4.88-to-l.
When a joker or bug is used, as in public card rooms in California,
you have an additional card to use to make flushes and straights,
which improves the chances of making the flush to 3.8-to-1
and of making the straight to 4.33-to-1. With a joker in your
hand, the chances of making a straight improve dramatically;
instead of having eight or nine cards to help your hand, you
might have 12 or even 16. For example, if you are holding. |
